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Probability Calculations in Rweb (Stat 3011)

Contents

The Standard Normal Distribtion

Forward Look-Up

The Rweb function that calculates what our textbook denotes P(z < z*), that is, the area under the standard normal curve to the left of the point z*, is pnorm. For any real number z the Rweb expression pnorm(z) calculates the area to the left of z, for example,

     pnorm(2.123)
calculates the area (0.983123) to the left of 2.123, that is, P(z < 2.123).

To do more complicated areas, one needs to use the addition rules and complement rules together with the pnorm function. For example,

     1 - pnorm(2.123)
calculates the area (0.01687693) to the right of 2.123, that is, P(z > 2.123), and
     pnorm(2.123) - pnorm(0.456)
calculates the area (0.3073181) between 0.456 and 2.123, that is, P(0.456 < z < 2.123).

Backward Look-Up

Rweb also has a function that does "backward" or "inverse" look-up. The "forward" problem is to find the probability p to the left of a point z. The "backward" problem is to find the point z that has probability p to the left it.

The Rweb function that does backward lookup is qnorm. Question: What is the point z such that 95% of the area under the standard normal curve is to the left of z? Answer:

     qnorm(0.95)
which is 1.644854.

The "q" in qnorm comes from the word "quantile." If

     p = pnorm(z)
then
     z = qnorm(p)
and z is called the p-th quantile of the standard normal distribution. This shows that pnorm and qnorm are what are called "inverse functions" in higher mathematics.

A special case of quantiles are percentiles that we learned about in Chapter 3 of our textbook. The 0.95 quantile is the 95th percentile, and so forth. (The only reason for the word "quantile" instead of "percentile" is that it applies when there are more than two significant figures. You can say 0.1875 quantile, but you generally don't say 18.75th percentile.) This tells us that qnorm is useful for looking up percentiles of the standard normal distribution: qnorm(0.35) is the 35th percentile, and so forth.

Of course, the complement rule and the addition rule can also be used in "backward" problems. But be careful! It's the argument of qnorm, not the value, that's the probability. So

     qnorm(1 - p)
looks up the point z having probability p to the right of z. But
     1 - qnorm(p)
is usually rubbish, because qnorm(p) is not a probability, hence it's not a thing to which the complement rule applies.

The General Normal Distribtion

Problems involving general normal distributions are hard using table look-up, because they all must be translated to and from equivalent problems using the standard normal distribution. With the computer all of these problems become much easier, because pnorm and qnorm also do general normal distributions using their optional second and third arguments, which specify the mean and standard deviation of the normal distribution for which probabilities or quantiles are being calculated.

Forward Look-Up

Question: If x is normal with mean 2 and standard deviation 3.4, what is P(x > 0). Answer:

     1 - pnorm(0, 2, 3.4)
The first argument gives the x value we want to look up. The second and third give the mean and s. d., respectively.

Question: If x is normal with mean 100 and variance 600, what is P(90 < x < 115). Answer:

     pnorm(110, 100, sqrt(600)) - pnorm(90, 100, sqrt(600))
Note that the s. d. is sqrt(600). The third argument is the standard deviation, not the variance.

The pattern used in both of these questions should be familiar. These are just like the examples for the standard normal distribution. The addition and complement rules are used in exactly the same way.

Backward Look-Up

Question: What is the 95th percentile of a normal random variables with 3 and standard deviation 4? Answer:

     qnorm(0.95, 3, 4)

Again, just like a standard normal problem, except for the two optional arguments of qnorm.